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As Chief Market Strategist at AG Capital, Casey Sprake translates global macro trends into clear investment insight with a South African lens.
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33 editions since January 2026.
Africa’s Property Opportunity: Growth Is Abundant, Certainty Is Scarce
Somewhere on the edge of the African continent, a logistics warehouse is being fitted with a solar array, battery storage and its own water infrastructure.
Germany’s Double Reckoning: AfD’s Rise Meets the Return of the Bond Vigilantes
AfD’s recent sweeping result in Saxony-Anhalt has unsettled Germany’s political establishment, even if it does not put the party on the brink of national power.
More Than Ozempic: The Broadening Pharma Opportunity
For much of the past several years, the pharmaceutical investment narrative has been unusually concentrated.
Gauteng Needs Better Governance, Not a Bigger Government
With the 4 November municipal elections approaching, the political noise is rising, and so too are the familiar promises that a system responsible for much of the decline can be trusted to reverse it.
The Cost of a City That Cannot Collect Its Waste
It feels like we are constantly writing about Johannesburg’s governance failure- another broken utility, another financial emergency, another essential service allowed to slide until crisis is the…
The Price of a Cold One: Beer, Bread and the Uneven Inflation Trade
South African Breweries (SAB) affordable beer volumes are falling. Investors should not dismiss that as a brewing blip; beneath the hops and froth lies a better barometer of financial strain than…
The Curve Is Doing the Hiking
Last week we wrote about a market so absorbed in a $30 billion blow-up that it missed the more consequential move happening behind it: the US 30-year yield closing at 5.28%, its highest print in…
A Lack of Situational Awareness
While the market gawped at a $30 billion blow-up, the US long bond just broke nineteen years of history.
South Africa's Grants System Has a Digital Profiteer Problem
It is one of the largest welfare programmes on the continent by headcount, and for years the story we told ourselves about digitising it was a conveniently tidy one.
Reflexivity: The Idea That Turned George Soros Into a Legend
Most market theories start with a comforting fiction - that prices reflect fundamentals, that participants are rational, and that markets, given enough time, settle into equilibrium.
Buy Now, Pay Later: A Real-Time Pulse Check on the South African Consumer
At the checkout, with a quick tap on a screen, a shopper opts to split a purchase into three payments rather than swipe a credit card.
Who’s Left Holding the Diamonds? Anglo’s Exit, Aramco’s Playbook and the New Politics of Resource Risk
Anglo American walking away from De Beers sounds, on the surface, like just another portfolio tidy‑up in a difficult market.
Governments Swallow the Energy Shock, Markets Get Indigestion
When politicians promise to “shield families from soaring energy bills,” they’re really deciding who ends up with the stomach ache.
When the Vibes Betray the Data: Brazil’s Warning for South Africa
Brazil offers a useful warning for governments tempted to govern by mood rather than mandate.
When the Sovereign Circuit Shorts the Street
Fitch’s latest credit rating upgrade for South Africa will be priced in, traded, and quickly forgotten.
The Invisible Hand Wore a Hegemonic Flag
Adam Smith’s invisible hand was never meant to wear a Stars and Stripes glove, yet for decades, it effectively did.
The KOSPI Blow-Off: Easy Money, Real Mania
South Korea’s equity market has gone from overlooked to borderline overheated in record time.
When the Political Middle Ground Cracks
The collapse of centrist politics isn’t just a political change; it’s a fault line running through global markets.
Cheap Insurance: Why a Small Interest Rate Hike Could Make Sense Now
For most people, any talk of interest rate hikes lands with a thud. Bonds, car repayments, small‑business loans - higher rates bite quickly and visibly, especially when the cost of living already…
The Word the Reserve Bank Keeps Skirting: Is SA Monetary Policy Really “Neutral”?
Ask ten South Africans whether interest rates are too high, too low, or about right, and you’ll probably get ten different answers.
Temporary is the Most Dangerous Word in Inflation
Few topics are dominating dinner tables, boardrooms and newsrooms quite like the cost of living right now.
South Africa’s Food Price Calm Before the El Niño Storm
South Africa’s food price outlook may be approaching a turning point, as early signals point to a high probability of an El Niño event developing ahead of the 2026–27 summer crop season - even as…
When Beats Stop Mattering
Contrary to popular belief, financial markets do not trade the economy itself - they trade the distance between the economy and what was already priced in.
The Monopoly Hangover
You know something is radically wrong with liquor stores when their most profitable month of the year is Dry January.
Forget Load Shedding... South Africa's Next Infrastructure Crisis Is Already Here.
The collapse of municipal wastewater infrastructure in South Africa can no longer be dubbed a mere governance footnote.
The Most Important Bill You Are Not Watching
South Africa's governance overhaul could reshape the risk premium. Markets, distracted by louder headlines, have barely noticed.
South Africa’s Consumer Confidence has a Postcode Problem
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index rose to -7 in Q1 2026, its strongest reading since late 2024.
The World Is Sailing Past South Africa's Door. Will Anyone Stop?
When the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28 under Operation Epic Fury, the consequences were never going to stay contained within Iran's borders.
Odds are we’re paying R7 more per litre of Diesel in 2 weeks time. Here's why
Imagine paying nearly R7 more for a litre of diesel in just two weeks’ time. For farmers hauling produce, taxi drivers filling up every day, and commuters already stretched thin, that’s not just an…
Profiting from Rotation: Navigating the Shift Beyond the Magnificent Seven
For much of the past two years, the message from US equity markets seemed remarkably straightforward. The S&P 500 was rising. Technology companies were booming.
A Conversation Over Canapés That Changed How I Think About Tanzania.
Sometimes the most interesting investment ideas don’t come from research notes- they come from unexpected conversations that make you stop and reassess a market entirely.
Who Really Controls America's Fighter Jets?
President Trump may soon discover that geopolitical chest-thumping comes with a very real invoice.
Venezuela’s Chaos: Cracking the Sanctions Sham Wide Open
At 2am, somewhere off a warm coast, a tanker “disappears” without actually going anywhere.